Liberal Democrat

Liberal Democrat
Liberal Democracy

Monday, September 10, 2012

FRSFreeState: Wall Street Journal: President Obama Leading Mitt Romney in 7-8 Battleground States: The President Making The Election A Choice

The Obama/Biden Campaign has several paths to reelection because they cleared a lot of new paths to victory in 2008. By winning Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina. States that Republicans tend to win, even when they lose Presidential Elections. Which means for the Romney/Ryan Campaign to win back the White House for the GOP, they not only had to win what are called battleground States or at least win their share of them. They have to win back States that Republicans tend to win, like Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina, they are currently trailing in 2-3 of those and are tied in North Carolina. This is why President Obama is the favorite to win this election and I've been saying this for a few months, because he's not only holding ground in the swing States. But he's holding ground in Republican States that Republicans have to have to win this election. As CNN Political Analyst John King said last week, its not impossible for Mitt Romney to win the Presidency without Ohio but his margin of error gets reduced to nothing. Because he would have to run the table the rest of the way, win the other Republican States he has to have. Where he's currently trailing and win the rest of the swing States, which is a really steep hill, they aren't called swing States for nothing.

Again if this Presidential Election becomes a referendum, then Mitt Romney is the clear favorite to win the election. Because a large majority of Americans aren't happy with where the country is economically, how could you be with 8.1% unemployment and 1.5% Economic Growth and only 96K jobs created last month. But if its about a choice, of which direction, which vision and who should lead the country, then President Obama gets reelected and perhaps walking away, at least. In the Electoral College which would mean that Democrats not only hold the Senate but the House would be put in play as well, why because Americans prefer President Obama over Mitt Romney. The President according to USA Today now has a 50% Approval Rating, Mitt Romney's Disapproval Rating is 49%, when Presidents are at 50%, a little over or under, they tend to get reelected.

The country isn't crazy about President Obama but they do like him personally and apparently half of the country like the job he's doing. But they don't like Mitt Romney at least not yet and Mitt so far hasn't been able to communicate why his Presidency and his policies would be any different. From that of President Bush's whose a very unpopular President and what he would do differently as President, while the President they like has a much different plan for the country going forward.

USA Today: Susan Page: President Obama Gets Post-Convention Bounce in Surveys

Obama gets post-convention bounce in surveys –

No question now who had the better convention

The Hill Poll: Voters See Election as Choice, not President Obama Referendum

The Hill Poll: Voters see election as choice, not Obama referendum - The Hill - covering Congress, Politics, Political Campaigns and Capitol Hill |

This is why the 2012 DNC was so successful because this is what Democrats want this election to be about. Because they win the choice argument because Americans tend to be with Democrats on the issues and the Romney/Ryan Campaign represent the policies of the Bush Administration.